Turns out the Euros have been trading on several contracts that will reflect the French Election likely outcome.
The chart (EuroVolatility) shows a dramatic surge in volatility into the 1st round of the French elections, as the fear/risk more than doubled from 8% in March to 18% in mid-April.
Then the one-month volatility euro-dollar implied volatility had its biggest drop EVER on Monday April 24th after the final two candidates were announced for this weekend’s vote. It fell to 8.4 percent from 12.85 percent.
The other measure of risk in Euroland is the VSTOXX Futures. I’ve also attached that chart, which virtually follows lockstep the drop in Euro-Currency volatility. Into this weekend’s vote it sits at roughly 15%, down from 22% in mid-March.