As you guys know, we look at volatility pops as evidence that a panic is taking place. Frequently, such pops indicate we may see a reversal.
CRUDE OIL has a volatility metric, the OVX. The OVX is up from $26 to 34.48, a move of 32% in three days!
During the same period, Crude Oil fell from $53.68 to $49.68, a drop of nearly 9%.
Interesting that the 100 day moving average in OVX is $34.14 and we traded through that yesterday, then pulled back to close at $32.33, over $2 under the high of the day. Today the OVX opened below $31 and has not bounced at all.
1) Volume of WTI Crude Oil (CL) April futures doubled from its 10 day average of 420,000 futures to 1 million futures are Wednesday and Thursday this week.
2) Last Friday (3/3) the total CL futures & options volumes were 750,000 and 127,000 respectively.
3) Yesterday (3/8) total CL futures trading topped 2M and options hit 598K.
4) Biggest put accumulations over past two volatile sessions were at the April 45 put strike, probably because so many believe a futher break from $49 would mean we threaten the November 2015 low of $45.17 for CL